OK, is this an example of correlation or causation?
Okla. unemployment rate bucks national trend
Oklahoma's unemployment rate has bucked national trends and declined over the last year, but economists say the positive jobs figures have more to do with the booming energy industry than a new anti-illegal-immigration law that has led some Hispanic workers to leave the state.
Oklahoma's unemployment rate dropped more than 1 percent since March 2007, to 3.1 percent in March 2008, giving Oklahoma the fourth lowest rate in the nation, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
While some speculate the trend may be tied to a bill passed last year targeting illegal immigrants, economists say it's more a result of Oklahoma's bustling oil and gas industry, high commodity prices and the state's insulation from the national housing crisis.
"Oklahoma is enjoying a fairly prosperous time given the state of the national economy, with everything going on in the mortgage market and sub-prime area," said Steven Agee, an economics professor at Oklahoma City University. "We haven't experienced that big real estate bubble like other states ... so our housing market has not suffered by comparison."
Oklahoma's most robust job growth from March 2007 to March 2008 came in the sectors of educational and health services (6,800 jobs) and natural resources and mining (5,700), according to statistics from the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission.
Unemployment rates are rising across the United States, except Oklahoma. That state is experiencing the most dramatic reduction in unemployment since 2007, an improvement many in Oklahoma attribute to the passage last year by the state legislature of a strong employment-focused immigration reform law.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported unemployment in Oklahoma had fallen to 3.1 percent in March, down from 4 percent in March last year, while unemployment nationwide was 5.1 percent, up from 4.4 percent in March last year.
"Oklahoma is no longer 'OK' for illegal aliens," said State Rep. Randy Terrill, who sponsored House Bill 1804 which passed by overwhelming majorities last year in both the House (84-14) and Senate (41-6) of the Oklahoma Legislature.
"The bottom line is illegal aliens will not come here if there are no jobs waiting for them," Terrill said. "They will not stay here if there is no government subsidy, and they certainly won't stay here if they know that if they ever encounter our state and local law enforcement officers, they will be physically detained until they are deported."
I don't know the answer, but I suspect causation. Remember what what happened after the ICE raids on the Swift meat processing plant. The company raised wages and put out employment ads. People lined up to put in an application to "do the work that Americans won't do."
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