March 25, 2008

Climate Cooling

Climate cooling?

Last Monday - on ABC Radio National, of all places - there was a tipping point of a different kind in the debate on climate change. It was a remarkable interview involving the co-host of Counterpoint, Michael Duffy and Jennifer Marohasy, a biologist and senior fellow of Melbourne-based think tank the Institute of Public Affairs. Anyone in public life who takes a position on the greenhouse gas hypothesis will ignore it at their peril.

Duffy asked Marohasy: "Is the Earth stillwarming?"

She replied: "No, actually, there has been cooling, if you take 1998 as your point of reference. If you take 2002 as your point of reference, then temperatures have plateaued. This is certainly not what you'd expect if carbon dioxide is driving temperature because carbon dioxide levels have been increasing but temperatures have actually been coming down over the last 10 years."

Duffy: "Is this a matter of any controversy?"

Marohasy: "Actually, no. The head of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has actually acknowledged it. He talks about the apparent plateau in temperatures so far this century. So he recognises that in this century, over the past eight years, temperatures have plateaued ... This is not what you'd expect, as I said, because if carbon dioxide is driving temperature then you'd expect that, given carbon dioxide levels have been continuing to increase, temperatures should be going up ... So (it's) very unexpected, not something that's being discussed. It should be being discussed, though, because it's very significant."

More at the link provided.

February 12, 2008

Green Fall Out

There is a pun in the title.

On local news yesterday, there was a segment about energy savings bulbs and how they have small amounts of mercury in them. The packaging states you shouldn't throw it in the trash. The state environmental agency says there is only one energy savings bulb recyclable facility in the entire state. So, the state is saying double wrap it in plastic(!) and throw them in the trash.

Mrs. D.S. asked if I had heard about the bulbs containing mercury, and I told her yes.

She was livid about the Catch-22 situation.

June 02, 2007

Common Sense Questions On Global Warming

My disbelief of the idea that humans are causing global warming rests upon a temperature baseline.

I want to know what is the range of global temperatures that is considered "normal"?

I want to know how the range of global temperatures that are measured, today, can be compared to the ranges of temperatures measured in years past when we have more temperature sensors and the sensors are more accurate.

I want to know why the number of years chosen for the temperature sample that was chosen as a baseline, is long enough when we know there have been wide temperature ranges over the hundreds of years. Now, comes some common sense:

"I have no doubt that global - that a trend of global warming exists," NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said in a taped interview that aired Thursday on National Public Radio. "I am not sure that it is fair to say that is a problem we must wrestle with."

"I guess I would ask which human beings, where and when, are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now, is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that's a rather arrogant position for people to take," Griffin said.

Michael Griffin is right. He's toast.

July 02, 2006

Global Warm This

I keep saying that global warming is not a proven fact. Here is an article that backs my point of view. Please read it.

...

When Newsweek featured global warming in a 1988 issue, it was claimed that all scientists agreed. Periodically thereafter it was revealed that although there had been lingering doubts beforehand, now all scientists did indeed agree. Even Mr. Gore qualified his statement on ABC only a few minutes after he made it, clarifying things in an important way. When Mr. Stephanopoulos confronted Mr. Gore with the fact that the best estimates of rising sea levels are far less dire than he suggests in his movie, Mr. Gore defended his claims by noting that scientists "don't have any models that give them a high level of confidence" one way or the other and went on to claim--in his defense--that scientists "don't know. . . . They just don't know."

...

Alpine glaciers have been retreating since the early 19th century, and were advancing for several centuries before that. Since about 1970, many of the glaciers have stopped retreating and some are now advancing again. And, frankly, we don't know why.

...

So what, then, is one to make of this alleged debate? I would suggest at least three points.

First, nonscientists generally do not want to bother with understanding the science. Claims of consensus relieve policy types, environmental advocates and politicians of any need to do so. Such claims also serve to intimidate the public and even scientists--especially those outside the area of climate dynamics. Secondly, given that the question of human attribution largely cannot be resolved, its use in promoting visions of disaster constitutes nothing so much as a bait-and-switch scam. That is an inauspicious beginning to what Mr. Gore claims is not a political issue but a "moral" crusade.

Lastly, there is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition. An earlier attempt at this was accompanied by tragedy. Perhaps Marx was right. This time around we may have farce--if we're lucky.

June 05, 2006

Global Warming Is A Theory

"Global Warming" is a theory, not a fact. I get into heated discussions when I ask people certain questions about the issue.

I have often mentioned remembering when I was a child, there was a concern over "global freezing". Very few people of my age or older remember, but this article backs me up.

Gray is perhaps the world's foremost hurricane expert. His Tropical Storm Forecast sets the standard. Yet, his criticism of the global warming "hoax" makes him an outcast.

"They've been brainwashing us for 20 years," Gray says. "Starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15-20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was."

Gray directs me to a 1975 Newsweek article that whipped up a different fear: a coming ice age.

"Climatologists," reads the piece, "are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change. ... The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality."

More later...

May 23, 2006

Global Warming Isn't A FACT, Just A Theory

Global warming isn't a fact, it is just a theory. There are facts to support that the Earth is, indeed, warming. The problem, for me, lies with a basic question: Is the warming trend outside of the normal range of warming and/or cooling trends that the Earth has already been through?

In other words, is the temperature change abnormal or normal? Frankly, I don't think there is enough information to say one way or the other.

How does a doctor know that a person is running a fever? Answer: over the years a baseline temperature of 98.6 has been established as the normal temperature of a human being. However, there is a delta, or a range, of variance from that temperature where doctors don't worry that the person is running a temperature. Having "too low" of a temperature is also a problem, but again, there is a delta where the doctor doesn't worry about it.

Why am I writing about this?

Well, Al Gore has a movie that screams "The global warming sky is falling" and I'm tired of people going off half-cocked without having "the other side" to it.

Here's a story: My daughter was telling me about global warming and what her teacher told her. I told her to ask her teacher these questions and report back to me:

      For global warming to be true, there has to be a base temperature that is used for the comparison. What is that base temperature?

      How many years did it take to come up with this base temperature?

      Isn't a flucuation of a "global temperature" normal?

Her teacher didn't appreciate the questions my daughter was told to ask her.

Check this one out:

Mr. Legates critiques the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment that proclaimed Arctic air temperature trends strongly indicate global warming, causing polar ice caps and glaciers to melt. However, Mr. Legates says, the Assessment ignored data that undermine these claims.

For example, coastal stations in Greenland are cooling and average summer air temperatures at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet have decreased by 4 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since measurements began in 1987. In addition, records from Russian coastal stations show the extent and thickness of sea ice has varied greatly over 60- to 80-year periods during the last 125 years. Moreover, the maximum air temperature they report for the 20th century was in 1938, when it was nearly four-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit warmer than the air temperature in 2000.

Ice core data from Baffin Island and sea core sediments from the Chukchi Sea also show that even if there is warming, it has occurred before. In Alaska, the onset of a climatic shift -- a warming -- in 1976-1977 ended the multidecade cold trend in the mid-20th century returning temperatures to those of the early 20th century.

In addition, a study commissioned by Canada's Fisheries and Oceans Department examined the relationship between air temperature and sea ice coverage, concluding, "the possible impact of global warming appears to play a minor role in changes to Arctic sea ice."

More later...

February 12, 2006

OH, HELL TO THE NAW!!!

US group implants electronic tags in workers

An Ohio company has embedded silicon chips in two of its employees - the first known case in which US workers have been “tagged” electronically as a way of identifying them.

CityWatcher.com, a private video surveillance company, said it was testing the technology as a way of controlling access to a room where it holds security video footage for government agencies and the police.

Embedding slivers of silicon in workers is likely to add to the controversy over RFID technology, widely seen as one of the next big growth industries.

February 05, 2006

IQ

It seems LaShawn Barber is stirring things up a bit by mentioning intelligence and IQ tests. I don't know where to go with this one so, again, I'll just go with the flow of the firings of the electric paths of my brain.

 

DarkStar's Experiences

I was IQ tested a few times while in elementary school. I don't know why I was tested, but so be it. I scored within a range that was "above average", but when I think about, I wonder how the scores would change if, as mentioned by some and by LaShawn in particular, intelligence can be tested and what is tested is q.

If intelligence is purely innate, then it seems to me, your innate ability, or maximum ability, is not subject to change.  Anyway...

I remember a "program" I was in where myself and a few other "high intelligence" classmates were taken out of class, sent to a room with a monitor, and did "experiments" with the monitor. It was a big waste of time and other than it happening, all I recall about the "experiments" was that I thought the "monitor" was a hippie.

Years later, in high school, a classmate told myself and some others  of a summer job opportunity working for pre-break up AT&T. We went to the employment office and spent most of the morning taking an aptitude test. The results of the test was interesting.

It turned out that I was judged to have an aptitude which showed I would be best as a "Dial 0" operator or a telephone repair technician. The latter covered the installers that installed lines in the home, worked the telephone polls, or worked in the banks of the central stations.

When I was told that the same range of scores in the same categories showed aptitude for either, I was shocked because I saw no similarity. I was told that both involve thinking on your feet and recognizing patterns.

When I compared scores with my classmates who also took the test, we all had similar results.

Some got summer jobs as installers while I got a job as a "Dial 0" operator. I was told I got that position because of affirmative action; they needed more male operators.

I worked that job for 2 summers. My classmates who worked as installers only one summer. I think the union got involved and had the positions closed down to summer hires. They were paid more than I was, in base pay. But I worked the night shift and came out just about the same because of the "night differential".

Again, years later, when I interviewed for a job with I.B.M., I had to take an aptitude test. The test showed the same thing the AT&T test showed: I had an aptitude for recognizing patterns.

Why do I mention this?

I do so because I don't think that there is a single intelligence, g, that accounts for intelligence. I am good at patterns and I'm good at numbers, but the combination in the form of electrical science boars me to tears. So, I wasn't good at it in college. In college, two applied math professors tried to get me to major in that field, but it bored me. I would not have been good in that area. But, I'm doing a good job at being a software engineer/architect/system engineer.

Additionally, while I can appreciate the geometry involved in creating a building, or painting a picture, or the rhythmic scales of involved in some classical musical works or Cameo's Candy, I will never be able to produce good works based on the math involved in what I mentioned.

Over time, I've come to realize there is more to intelligence than what comprises a single number.

Avery pointed out this article in his post on the topic.

The Research

I haven't taken time to specifically research the area of IQ. Over time, when the topic comes across my radar screen, I'll read articles about the discussion, make mental notes and then move on. Some time ago, I read or heard a discussion that stated the same thing that the article by Thomas Sowell points out:

In recent years, research by Professor James R. Flynn, an American expatriate living in New Zealand, has shaken up the whole IQ controversy by discovering what has been called "the Flynn effect." In various countries around the world, people have been answering significantly more IQ test questions correctly than in the past.

This important fact has been inadvertently concealed by the practice of changing the norms on IQ tests, so that the average number of correctly answered questions remains by definition an IQ of 100. Only by painstakingly going back and recalculating IQs, based on the initial norms, was Professor Flynn able to discover that whole nations had, in effect, had their IQs rising over the decades by about 20 points.

Since the black-white difference in IQ is 15 points, this means that an even larger IQ difference has existed between different generations of the same race, making it no longer necessary to attribute IQ differences of this magnitude to genetics. In the half century between 1945 and 1995, black Americans' raw test scores rose by the equivalent of 16 IQ points.

I do remember that at the time, I had noted to myself that the same thing "re-norming" has happened with the SAT score, only in the reverse direction. Today's normalized mean SAT score is lower than scores of years past.

Anyway, the research in the area is vast and more extensive than she lists. From what I've read over time, some of it I can grasp, some of it is beyond my ability to do the number crunching to determine if the analysis is accurate and if the method is valid.

I have my ideas based on what I do understand and I go from there. But there is something I do want to go into.

LaShawn has a post were she gives the "pros and cons" in the "discussion." I'm left underwhelmed by what's listed and it seems geared towards developing a reason to be anti-affirmative action, where affirmative action is mis-defined as racial preferences. The policy that she brings to the mix is the thing that gets me going.

The Policy

LaShawn writes this:

Talking about this issue is also important because the inability to do well, or at least as well as whites, on standardized tests is the reason race preferences exist. It’s the reason gobs of money are spent on urban schools and others with a large black student body. No matter how much money taxpayers spend, student achievement test scores barely move and the black-white achievement gap never closes. It’s the reason a low-income white student outperforms a black student from an upper middle-class household.

So called "race preferences" exist, not because of testing ability, but on the history of exclusion in this country. In reading about affirmative action, I've never come across Arthur Fletcher saying that he pushed for affirmative action in the Nixon administration because Negroes did not score well on standardized tests. "Gobs" of money are spent on "urban schools", in part, because the funding isn't equal in the first place. When the amount of money spent by an urban system is compared to the amount of money spent by a suburban system in the same area, with factors such as cost of maintaining the schools and "special education" are accounted for, the urban system is generally spending less per pupil than the suburban school. But, on this point, I will say that many urban systems probably do a poor job in being wise managers of the money.

When she writes that the achievement gap never closes, she ignores the stories, most coming from the conservative side, that shows how Black kids are achieving and closing the gap when properly structured education is put into place.

I agree with the idea that a broad spectrum of courses, ranging from vocational to advanced college preparation, should be available to students and that some students should probably not be prevented from dropping out of school, but to base such educational options available to students on the "IQ norms of a group"?

It seems odd that the conservative is willing to ignore the individuals to judge based on the group.
Wait, isn't that her beef with affirmative action?

I don't want to seem like I'm kissing someone's butt, or using someone's similar comments to back up mine, but here are some good comments that come from Booker Rising

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